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Financial Times (London, England)
September 3, 2005 Saturday
Asia Edition 1
SECTION: ASIA-PACIFIC; Pg. 4
LENGTH: 794 words
HEADLINE: From Friendship Hotel, a message of amity: A Beijing leader tells Richard McGregor why the rise of China will not threaten the west
BYLINE: By RICHARD MCGREGOR
BODY:
When Hu Jintao needed an emissary to take a message to US leaders ahead ofhis Washington visit next week, he dispatched ZhengBijian, a trusted colleague from the time the pair ran the Communist party's school inthe 1990s.
Mr Zheng is the architect of the "peaceful rise" theory, which contends that,unlike other rising nations in history, China will integrate with status quo powers rather than challenge them through war or other means.
Articulated to counter the "China threat" theory, Mr Zheng's musings have been elevated into high policy by the top leadership, who have used it to try to soothe growing concerns about the mainland's putative superpower status.
"China's rise is an entirely new phenomenon unseen in world history," says Mr Zheng, 72, a tall, courtly figure, in an interview at his office at the Friendship Hotel in the suburbs of Beijing.
"I understand why the western world is feeling so confused about the peaceful rise of China and why you cannot reach a consensus."
Mr Zheng received a reception worthy of his status in Washington in June, meeting top administration officials, including Condoleezza Rice, Robert Zoellick and Stephen Hadley, and delivering a speech to the Brookings Institution.
The chairman of the semi-official China Reform Forum since retiring from the party school, Mr Zheng rarely gives media interviews, preferring to propagate his views in public speeches and private meetings.
But his willingness to press his opinion in an interview with the Financial Times is evidence that Chinese leaders worry their message is not getting through in an increasingly hostile Washington.
His thesis rests on two pillars, that China's reforms in the past quarter of a century have delivered unprecedented prosperity to its people and also helped stabilise the world; but that it cannot sustain such development without a further deep integration with the global economy.
He pointedly compares China with other regimes that have risen to challenge the US, Britain and other western countries, such as Hitler's Germany, Hirohito's Japan and the former Soviet Union, only to be defeated or collapse. "China has rejected these above-mentioned countries because China emphasises win-win," he says. "China will never use violence to disturb the current economic order of the world. So you should have a different strategy for dealing with China."
The contrast with the former Soviet Union, which helped sow the seed of its later collapse in 1979 with the invasion of Afghanistan, the year China launched its market economy reforms, is especially instructive.
"The Chinese Communist party is not like the Communist party of the Soviet Union, hence our confidence in future prosperity."
Mr Zheng's reassurances are laced with the suggestion of dire consequences should the west oppose China's rise and sabotage its sovereign rights, including Taiwan and energy security.
"China is a new problem and you need to have a new way of thinking. Otherwise you might have a strategic misjudgment," he says.
At the same time China needs a peaceful external environment to handle its own dramatic internal challenges of economic management and wealth creation.
China faces catastrophic environmental and water problems; a restive rural population increasingly demanding that its rights be respected; and the job of managing the migration to cities of hundreds of millions of surplus agricultural workers.
"That means about 100m-200m young surplus labourers will have to have vocational training so they can find jobs in coming years," he says.
Mr Zheng's theory has been far from universally accepted within China, with many scholars criticising the theory for suggesting a dilution of Beijing's determination to use force if necessary to assert its claim over Taiwan.
"One does not restrain one's options," says Shen Dingli, of Fudan University, in Shanghai.
Yan Xuetong, a well-known Taiwan hawk at Tsinghua University in Beijing, says he "frequently uses the word 'rise' but I seldom use the term 'peaceful rise' ".
Mr Yan worries that the phrase underestimates the huge impact China's continued development will have on other countries. "China's growth is not like quick growth in Cambodia or some African country," he says. "It will change the world dramatically and I think the world should prepare for that."
Chinese leaders first began using the term "peaceful rise" in late 2003 and 2004, but then largely dropped it after a long internal debate.
Since then the phrase "peaceful development" has been preferred but, despite the semantic difference, its import is much the same as the original.
"I don't think you should suspect there is any political manoeuvring behind this phrase," says Mr Zheng, who has determinedly stuck with the term. Man in the News, Page 7
LOAD-DATE: September 2, 2005
September 3, 2005 Saturday
Asia Edition 1
SECTION: ASIA-PACIFIC; Pg. 4
LENGTH: 794 words
HEADLINE: From Friendship Hotel, a message of amity: A Beijing leader tells Richard McGregor why the rise of China will not threaten the west
BYLINE: By RICHARD MCGREGOR
BODY:
When Hu Jintao needed an emissary to take a message to US leaders ahead ofhis Washington visit next week, he dispatched ZhengBijian, a trusted colleague from the time the pair ran the Communist party's school inthe 1990s.
Mr Zheng is the architect of the "peaceful rise" theory, which contends that,unlike other rising nations in history, China will integrate with status quo powers rather than challenge them through war or other means.
Articulated to counter the "China threat" theory, Mr Zheng's musings have been elevated into high policy by the top leadership, who have used it to try to soothe growing concerns about the mainland's putative superpower status.
"China's rise is an entirely new phenomenon unseen in world history," says Mr Zheng, 72, a tall, courtly figure, in an interview at his office at the Friendship Hotel in the suburbs of Beijing.
"I understand why the western world is feeling so confused about the peaceful rise of China and why you cannot reach a consensus."
Mr Zheng received a reception worthy of his status in Washington in June, meeting top administration officials, including Condoleezza Rice, Robert Zoellick and Stephen Hadley, and delivering a speech to the Brookings Institution.
The chairman of the semi-official China Reform Forum since retiring from the party school, Mr Zheng rarely gives media interviews, preferring to propagate his views in public speeches and private meetings.
But his willingness to press his opinion in an interview with the Financial Times is evidence that Chinese leaders worry their message is not getting through in an increasingly hostile Washington.
His thesis rests on two pillars, that China's reforms in the past quarter of a century have delivered unprecedented prosperity to its people and also helped stabilise the world; but that it cannot sustain such development without a further deep integration with the global economy.
He pointedly compares China with other regimes that have risen to challenge the US, Britain and other western countries, such as Hitler's Germany, Hirohito's Japan and the former Soviet Union, only to be defeated or collapse. "China has rejected these above-mentioned countries because China emphasises win-win," he says. "China will never use violence to disturb the current economic order of the world. So you should have a different strategy for dealing with China."
The contrast with the former Soviet Union, which helped sow the seed of its later collapse in 1979 with the invasion of Afghanistan, the year China launched its market economy reforms, is especially instructive.
"The Chinese Communist party is not like the Communist party of the Soviet Union, hence our confidence in future prosperity."
Mr Zheng's reassurances are laced with the suggestion of dire consequences should the west oppose China's rise and sabotage its sovereign rights, including Taiwan and energy security.
"China is a new problem and you need to have a new way of thinking. Otherwise you might have a strategic misjudgment," he says.
At the same time China needs a peaceful external environment to handle its own dramatic internal challenges of economic management and wealth creation.
China faces catastrophic environmental and water problems; a restive rural population increasingly demanding that its rights be respected; and the job of managing the migration to cities of hundreds of millions of surplus agricultural workers.
"That means about 100m-200m young surplus labourers will have to have vocational training so they can find jobs in coming years," he says.
Mr Zheng's theory has been far from universally accepted within China, with many scholars criticising the theory for suggesting a dilution of Beijing's determination to use force if necessary to assert its claim over Taiwan.
"One does not restrain one's options," says Shen Dingli, of Fudan University, in Shanghai.
Yan Xuetong, a well-known Taiwan hawk at Tsinghua University in Beijing, says he "frequently uses the word 'rise' but I seldom use the term 'peaceful rise' ".
Mr Yan worries that the phrase underestimates the huge impact China's continued development will have on other countries. "China's growth is not like quick growth in Cambodia or some African country," he says. "It will change the world dramatically and I think the world should prepare for that."
Chinese leaders first began using the term "peaceful rise" in late 2003 and 2004, but then largely dropped it after a long internal debate.
Since then the phrase "peaceful development" has been preferred but, despite the semantic difference, its import is much the same as the original.
"I don't think you should suspect there is any political manoeuvring behind this phrase," says Mr Zheng, who has determinedly stuck with the term. Man in the News, Page 7
LOAD-DATE: September 2, 2005
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