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???-??-?????�???????????????霸主不好当 美国对华战略由遏制转向融合牵制

2005年08月23日14:45 【字号 大 中 小】【留言】【论坛】【打印】【关闭】

　　香港《大公报》近日发表黄万转撰写的文章，认为中美正在酝酿形成一种新的战略关系。说美国对华的软硬兼施政策，过去是简单的遏制加接触，现在有可能变成“融合牵制”。

　　美国不再追求也不可能实现全面围堵中国的崛起，而是通过强化美日同盟、美印准同盟等等，并企图协调美欧关系共同应对中国，企图延缓中国崛起的速度，减少它对美国利益的冲击和损害。

　　最近，中美关系中有不少新的值得注意的动态，它主要发生在中美高层战略对话前后。这些动态说明什么问题呢？国内外都在关注和探讨。

　　客观因素制约主观战略

　　笔者认为，中美正在酝酿形成一种新的战略关系。要客观地观察和把握这种新关系，首先必须在理论上划清界限，那就是大国间如何相互评估和界定对方，这是一回事；而现实的双边关系在客观上又是一种什么样的关系，能不能完全按照大国的主观界定来实现，这又是另一回事。二者既有联系又有区别，不可混为一谈。比如，如果美方视中方为战略竞争对手，并在主观意图上要加以围堵和遏制，那么中方对美方也一定会有自己的评估和界定，并且要采取一系列的反围堵反遏制的政策和举措。再加上世界上各种重大因素的制约和影响，其中有邻国的、区域的、国际的、以及人类共同的敌人的，包括恐怖主义和各种自然灾害的影响。种种主客观因素都会制约中美双方的主观界定和主观战略，使它们不能完全按照自己的战略意图实现。这是一方面。

　　另一方面，中美双方除了有竞争甚至对抗的一面以外，还有一系列共同利益交集点，也还有各自都要避免的、例如全面战争和核大战等。这些复杂的因素，包括客观的和主观的、国内的和国际的、特别是经济全球化，使中美关系在客观上会逐渐走上一种双方都可以接受或至少是暂时可以接受的共处关系，而不是一种有你无我的关系。毕竟共同的地球村只有那么一点，抬头不见低头见。

　　北京今夏奇热，但是却挡不住四位重量级部长接踵来访，其中包括在短时间内第二次访华的赖斯国务卿。而美国常务副国务卿左立克7月31日按时访华，与中国外交部常务副部长进行首次战略对话。这种对话当时是中方主动提出的，而美方很快就予以同意。这就表明，美国终于被迫承认中国正在崛起的事实，承认中国在世界的战略地位，愿意同中国展开战略对话。紧接着第四轮朝核六方会谈重新在北京启动，由于东道主中国的积极努力和美方的合作，这次会谈虽然没有就联合声明达成协议，然而正如中方代表所说，我们虽然还在山下，但已看到山顶了。因此，六方会谈将在月底重新继续。

　　值得注意的是，美国代表在这次会谈中态度明显不同，她表现出积极和一定的弹性，表现出解决问题的愿望，对中方的努力也给予了很高的评价，而不像过去有些人所说的那样，说什么中方在六方会谈中缺乏诚意。这次会谈后美方代表明确地对记者宣布，美方认为美国和中国在这次会谈中都已经尽了力，如果这次会谈不能达成协议，美方还要继续同中方合作来解决朝核问题。朝鲜半岛无核化这样复杂的大事，今次能谈成这样已经不错了。这是中美双方进一步努力合作的结果，当然也还有朝鲜、韩国和俄罗斯的共同努力。

　　高层会晤频繁有共识

　　况且不久以前，胡锦涛主席和布什总统曾有过两次重要会晤，并达成了重要共识。

　　美国从去年下半年开始，躁动着一股关注中国、介绍中国、议论中国的热潮，至今绵延不绝。美国政界的重量级人物，影响巨大的主流媒体，工商业家各阶层各方面人士纷纷卷入。五角大楼关于中国军力的报告，修改并推迟三次才得以出炉。它的结论和措辞虽然还使中国人民感到不爽，但已经比前两稿要温和得多。据说是已经掌握了美国诸多实权、以赖斯为首的国务院的影响所致。看来，美国著名鹰派拉姆斯菲尔德所主管的五角大楼，已经不再能对美国的对外政策发生重大影响了。赖斯为布什所高度信任，她对布什也有相当的影响，这是中美战略关系有所松动的一个重要因素。此其一。

　　其二，过去美国对中国是否能够崛起将信将疑，因而放松了注意，特别是在伊拉克战争期间。现在美国媒体都为此而问罪美国政府。而现在情况不同了。如今几乎所有的美国政要和高官，包括布什、赖斯和拉氏都肯定中国正在崛起，而美国不可能阻挡它。美国只能努力使中国的崛起朝着与美国合作或不损害少损害美国利益的方向发展。按照美国政府的理念，过去面对的是“中国问题”，而现在要应对的是中国崛起和强大的问题，对于后者，只能加以引导和影响。美国政要在新加坡公开声称，美国从来不想遏制中国，而且也遏制不了，美国从来就没有遏制这个概念，而只有平衡这个概念，就是要使中国军力和亚太各国的军力以及美国在亚太地区的军事存在保持均势。前不久，赖斯把这个意思说得更加直截了当，她说：美国欢迎中国经济的强大，因为这符合美国的利益。但是美国希望看到中国的军力能和亚太各国的军力保持平衡。

　　将遏制改为“融合牵制”

　　这就是说，美国对华的软硬兼施政策，过去是简单的遏制加接触，现在有可能变成“融合牵制”。因为中美两国利益的交织程度以及中国和周边多数国家经济的互相依赖程度，使得简单的遏制政策不仅得不偿失，而且也得不到多少国家的支持，连美国的军事盟友澳大利亚和韩国等等均不支持，况且也遏制不住了，因此最近各种新概念就应运而生，什么“对冲”、“平衡”、“融合牵制”等等。所谓融合，就是更深层的接触，从国家首脑的频繁会晤、各部长的业务对话到高层的战略对话等等，形成一种沟通机制，企图借它准确地把握中国崛起的脉搏，引导中国发展的方向，实现美国自身利益的最大化或损失的最小化。而所谓牵制，实际上是更务实的遏制。美国不再追求也不可能实现全面围堵中国的崛起，而是通过强化美日同盟、美印准同盟等等，并企图协调美欧关系共同应对中国，企图延缓中国崛起的速度，减少它对美国利益的冲击和损害。

　　高处不胜寒霸主不好当

　　对中国经济强大所持有的矛盾心理，美国媒体对中海油并购尤尼科事件前后的不同态度，就是一个有趣的左证。当初媒体和国会一样，对中海油的并购纷表反对，大肆抨击，说它威胁美国的能源安全，威胁美国的利益，鼓动政府予以封杀，有的甚至还主张要痛击中国。然而在中海油放弃并购以后，媒体却来了一个180度的大转弯，花脸变成白脸，批评美国国会和政府应对错误，放弃自由贸易原则，损害股东的权益等等。诚然，中美经济的互补性和共生性已经是客观的现实。赖斯说得好，中国经济的强大有利于美国，而中国经济的衰退不利于美国，这在美国已经不仅是企业家们所懂得的道理了，美国媒体的变脸正证明了这个问题。

　　中美连手阻止日本等四国“入常”，也是一个有趣的政治左证。当初谁能预料到会是这样的呢？美国的确害了“霸主综合症”，她不允许任何国家包括她的亲密盟友对她有任何威胁或挑战，为此，她可以不择手段、同自己的对手采取联合行动，来阻止亲密盟国对她的挑战。难怪日本政府要对美国提出抗议了。请勿忘记，日本是头一个通过珍珠港事变对美国迎头痛击的国家，而美国是头一个对日本实施原子弹轰炸的国家。两国虽然是军事盟友，却不可能是完全一条心。美国对日本尚且如此，对中国崛起的疑虑和惧怕就可以想象了。这个霸主也不好当啊，高处不胜寒！

　　中国外交比美国更主动

　　其三，中国的实力比美国仍然差得很远，这在长时期内都会是如此。然而中国也今非昔比了。她有所壮大了，她既要韬光养晦，又要有所作为。因此中美战略互动的态势也有所不同了。过去历来是美国主动，中国被动；美国采取攻势，中国采取守势。而现在，在某些时候、某些领域和某些问题上，态势倒过来了。美国对这种态势的有所逆转，有一个适应的过程，开始她视为中国威胁论，如今很多人还是这样看的。但是也有一些清醒而务实的人懂得这是不可避免的事情了。

　　据民意调查，世界多数国家对美国的印象不佳，对中国的印象却不错，中国的国际地位有了明显的提升，中国同一些主要大国的关系和周边国家的关系都得到全面的推进，一系列有利于中国和平发展的多边组织也如雨后春笋，使得中国对美国的外交有时也把握了一定的主动权。

　　这一切都使中美战略关系正在酝酿变化，并将继续变化。对此加以捕捉，正确因应，趋利避害，使中美实现松动和双赢，形成这样一种战略关系，对全世界都有战略上的好处。当然这是一个复杂的曲折过程。

China Today Differs From Japan in 1980s - New York Times

China Today Differs From Japan in 1980s - New York TimesAugust 19, 2005
China Today Differs From Japan in 1980s
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 2:18 p.m. ET

NEW YORK (AP) -- It sounds like history repeating itself: The United States faces a huge trade deficit with an Asian country, which is also under intense scrutiny for its interest in buying U.S. assets and having a currency many deem undervalued.

Today, that best describes how China is viewed. Two decades ago, Japan came under U.S. criticism for its growing global presence, and that spurred all sorts of protectionist talk out of Washington.

The Japanese hysteria eventually died down as the country fell into a long recession. But don't look for that to happen with China, where its politics combined with its potential for growth may make it a far tougher force to reckon with going forward.

China has drawn the ire of many countries because of the vast amount of T-shirts, toys and everything else that it is exporting at lower prices than many local markets' products.

The United States' trade deficit with China hit $162 billion last year, making it the largest imbalance ever recorded with a single country. This year's deficit is already running 32 percent above last year's pace, and political pressure is heating up to put tighter restrictions on imports from China.

American lawmakers have blamed some of this on China's undervalued currency. They threatened to impose punitive tariffs on China if it didn't switch to a more flexible currency system rather than have the yuan trade at a fixed exchange rate that was pegged to the U.S. dollar -- which has kept its export prices low.

In July, China announced it would gradually let the yuan rise in value against a basket of currencies, though some critics say that its move isn't enough.

And Chinese companies have come up against great resistance when expressing interest to acquire U.S. assets. Their bids this summer for American oil and gas company Unocal Corp. and appliance maker Maytag Corp. didn't ultimately result in any deals, but such interest was seen as a sign of greater Chinese ambition in the global marketplace.

All this China-bashing is reminiscent of the talk directed at Japan in the 1980s, when fuel-efficient Japanese cars were gaining popularity with U.S. consumers while the Japanese were buying up American companies as well as trophy U.S. real estate.

Back then, the U.S. trade deficit with Japan was ballooning, and there were many claims that Japan was keeping its currency artificially low to boost its exports. To fix that, U.S. politicians demanded that Japan either strengthen the yen, or face trade sanctions.

''What is being said about China sounds like the same speeches and arguments that were heard about Japan. Back then, we had senators protesting on the steps of the Capitol'' about foreign-made goods, said Milton Ezrati, a senior economic strategist at the money management firm Lord Abbett.

But while China today looks a lot like yesterday's Japan -- before its asset bubble burst and it headed into a prolonged economic slump -- Morgan Stanley global economist Stephen Roach sees big differences. ''In terms of the scale of their economies and financial markets, China and Japan are like day and night,'' he said in a recent note to clients.

Among the distinctions: Japan's equity-market capitalization amounted to 41 percent of the world's total market capitalization in 1989; by contrast, China's equity markets currently account for only 0.5 percent of the value of global equity markets.

He also notes that China has a much more outward-looking growth and development model than Japan. In 2004, exports and imports combined equaled 74 percent of Chinese GDP, more than three times Japan's 23 percent share.

That is why Chinese currency reforms take on much greater importance, Roach said, pointing out that the Chinese might have learned from the Japanese to resist U.S.-led political pressure for currency revaluation. Japan ran into trouble in the late 1980s, in part by abdicating control over the yen and letting the dollar-yen conversion soar from 259 in 1985 to 121 by the end of 1987. Many blame that for setting the stage for an asset bubble that eventually collapsed in Japan.

''The last thing China wants is to go down that road -- placating U.S. politicians on the currency front while, at the same time, sowing the seeds of an increasingly dangerous liquidity bubble of its own,'' Roach said.

There are also significant political differences between the two. While the Chinese have been more open to foreign investment than Japan, there are some concerns that the communist political structure means that the Chinese won't embrace all kinds of foreign involvement such as an American company buying a big Chinese company.

In addition, Standard & Poor's chief economist David Wyss points out that China's huge population -- which he estimates is 10 times as large as Japan's -- means that China has the capability of taking over world production of just about everything.

So talking about China today as though it were Japan 20 years ago might not accurately size up the situation of this fast-growing empire. China's might just be beginning to build its power as an economic force.

To the dismay of many Americans, that will likely mean a bigger, bolder China to contend with for many years to come.
------
Rachel Beck is the national business columnist for The Associated Press. Write to her at rbeck(at)ap.org

Rice Warns China to Make Major Economic Changes - New York Times

August 19, 2005
Rice Warns China to Make Major Economic Changes
By JOEL BRINKLEY
WASHINGTON, Aug. 18 - Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned this week that China must make significant structural changes in its economic policies, lest it remain "a problem for the international economy."

In an interview on Wednesday, Ms. Rice also laid out the administration's concerns about China's military buildup, its human rights record and its restrictions on religious freedom. Her unusually sharp criticism was a clear indication of the administration's ambivalence and frustration with China, even as officials prepare for a state visit next month by the president of China, Hu Jintao, his first visit since taking office in 2003. In her speeches and news conferences, Ms. Rice usually maintains a positive tone about China. She often says relations with the government in Beijing "are at their best ever."

During the interview this week at the State Department with reporters and an editor of The New York Times, which coincided with a review of diplomatic plans for the fall that she has been conducting with her top aides, Ms. Rice took time to explain why China seems to present such a diplomatic quandary.

"The relationship with China is just big and complicated, and it's got good parts and it's got not so good parts," she said. "But what we are trying to stay focused on is the understanding that China is going to be influential in international politics one way or another. It's a major power, and it's going to be an even more major power."

In a separate interview this week, Robert B. Zoellick, the deputy secretary of state who just returned from meetings with Chinese leaders in Beijing, said the Chinese leadership did not disguise its eagerness to maintain an amicable relationship with Washington.

"The overwhelming sense I got was that they do not want a conflict with the United States," Mr. Zoellick said. But he said that he, too, "tried to get them to see how their actions are perceived by the other side," particularly "if they were not transparent, they would create uncertainties, and uncertainties lead people to hedge."

The United States is hedging to a degree, he acknowledged, by enhancing its relations with some of China's neighbors, including Australia, India and Japan.

"India is a more striking example," he said. "And you know these guys read history; they understand realpolitik."

For now, China appears to be on something close to probation with the Bush administration, with China's critics in Congress and with leaders of industry. One important measure is whether the Chinese will choose to revalue their currency further in the coming months. At its present value, American goods are more expensive than they should be in China, the Bush administration says, and Chinese goods are cheaper here. A 2.1 percent increase in the value of its currency in July was viewed in Washington as a start but inadequate by itself.

"I think this will be an evolving thing," John Engler, president of the National Association of Manufacturers, said Thursday in an interview. "We expect them to review this by fall, by October," he said.

"A lot depends on what the Chinese do," Ms. Rice said, speaking more generally. She also made it clear that she was concerned about China's military buildup, which she said "looks outsized for its regional interests." "We're going to continue to press" on "human rights and religious freedom," she added.

"But on balance," she said, "it is a good relationship" that has "a considerable benefit in the war on terrorism" and "in the North Korea proliferation issues," among others.

Over the spring and summer, several actions by China, including its passage of the Taiwan antisuccession law and its efforts to buy the oil company Unocal oil company and the appliance maker Maytag, combined to send Washington into one of its periods of high anxiety over China.

As Senator Lisa Murkowski, the Alaska Republican who is the Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs, put it in July, the capital was seized by a "fever pitch of concern" about China.

Since then, China dropped its effort to acquire Unocal. It ordered the small revaluation of its currency, the Yuan. It drafted a proposal to allow direct sales in China, responding to another business complaint. The administration also gave China significant credit for its work during the North Korea disarmament talks this month. As a result of those and other actions, several senior officials acknowledged, "the temperature has dropped," as one put it.

Senator Charles E. Schumer, the New York Democrat, acknowledged Thursday in an interview that "the ardor has cooled, but not permanently." He is cosponsor, with Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, of a measure that would impose a 27.5 percent tariff on Chinese imports if China did not revalue its currency. Even the bill's sponsors were surprised when it got 67 votes in a test vote of sorts in April.

Neither Mr. Schumer nor Mr. Graham says he believes China's 2.1 percent revaluation last month is enough, but China has said it plans no further revaluations. Both senators say they are watching and waiting.

To stoke the debate, on Thursday Mr. Schumer's office made public a 15-page report that sets out the problems with China's economic and trade practices in language that ranges from caustic to accusatory.

"No American company would be able to take over a Chinese competitor in a way that Cnooc attempted to take over Unocal," it says. "The rules simply don't allow it." Cnooc is the state-controlled Chinese oil company that bid for Unocal.

Elsewhere, the report notes, "China blatantly extorts patented technology from American companies in exchange for market access," adding, "Fairness or adherence to the normal rules of the free market is not the top priority of the Chinese government."

The American Embassy in Beijing depicts the same debate differently. While not minimizing the difficulties and unfair practices businesses face in China, in its current "China Country Commercial Guide," the embassy notes that, "entranced by the prospect of 1.3 billion customers, thousands of foreign firms have charged into the Chinese market" without "the necessary preparations."

Ms. Rice, like Mr. Zoellick, said she told China's leaders in her recent meetings with them that they should heed the warnings from Congress and elsewhere. Even though the administration opposes the Graham-Schumer bill, Ms. Rice said she told the Chinese leaders "Don't ignore what people are saying to you about the problems of a Chinese economy that is both big and unreformed.

"We remind them that the president is a free trader, but he is a free trader who believes there has to be a level playing field for American workers and farmers and American goods."

Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company

China and Russia Are Set to Begin Joint Military Exercises - New York Times

August 18, 2005
China and Russia Are Set to Begin Joint Military Exercises
By CHRIS BUCKLEY
BEIJING, Aug. 17 - China and Russia will hold their most ambitious joint military exercises beginning Thursday, with naval ships, bombers, fighter planes and 10,000 troops massing on China's northeast coast for maneuvers that the two countries say will show their deepening cooperation.

They say the exercise is not intended to threaten other countries, but to improve the ability of China and Russia to thwart terrorism and separatist uprisings on their borders. But the focus of those concerns is in Central Asia, while the exercises will be on the Pacific coast, 3,000 miles away. Energy and regional tensions exist in northeast Asia, however, and the display of mutual political trust between China and Russia may be more important than the military training involved, specialists in Russian and Chinese relations said.

"It's really got nothing to do with terrorism - that's just a neutral justification," Bobo Lo, who specializes in Chinese-Russian relations at Chatham House, an international relations institute in London, said of the exercises. "The real rationale is not a military one, and not even a security one, but to show the strength of the overall relationship."

The differences between what Russia and China are saying about the exercises may be more revealing.

A senior Chinese military officer suggested this week that the exercises were intended to bring Russia in to deter the United States from supporting Taiwan if it moved toward independence and China responded with force.

"For China, the real threat to national sovereignty, territorial integrity and the mission of national reunification is a large and powerful potential foe with high-tech weapons," said Col. Lai Bin, of the People's Liberation Army's Academy of Military Sciences Beijing, apparently referring to the United States. "Carrying out training and exercises for this makes perfect sense." His comments appeared in Asia Weekly, a mainland-controlled Chinese-language magazine published in Hong Kong.

But suggestions that Russia would back China in an attack on Taiwan are far-fetched, Russian analysts said. "Russia supports China's one-China policy," said Vasily Mikheyev, a specialist on Chinese-Russian relations at the Institute of International Political and Economic Studies in Moscow, "but Russia certainly doesn't want to be involved in Chinese-Taiwanese tactical rivalry."

Increased Chinese military cooperation with Russia may eventually help reduce influence in Asia, said Andrew Yang, a specialist on the Chinese military at the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, a privately financed research organization in Taipei, Taiwan. "Better security relations with Russia will help China to balance U.S. influence in the region," he said.

The exercises will also give China an opportunity to learn from Russia's forces, which have more experience in the complicated joint maneuvers that China may eventually use to threaten Taiwan.

Despite a decade of double-digit increases in official military budgets, China's arms still lag behind Russia's most advanced weaponry, said Bates Gill, a specialist on China's international security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "It will be an opportunity for the Chinese to see a superior military in action."

Russia will also be showing off new military equipment, including the Tu-95MS fighter and the Tu-22M3 bomber, Chinese and Russian news media have reported.

China and Russia Are Set to Begin Joint Military Exercises - New York Times

Sino - Russian War Games Move on to China - New York Times

Sino - Russian War Games Move on to China - New York TimesAugust 20, 2005
Sino - Russian War Games Move on to China
By REUTERS
Filed at 5:27 a.m. ET

BEIJING (Reuters) - Some 10,000 Chinese and Russian troops launched the second stage of their countries' first-ever military exercises on Saturday in a demonstration of the strengthening ties between the former Cold War adversaries.

After two days near the Russian port of Vladivostok, the war games shifted to eastern China's Shandong peninsula where the joint manouevres will include combat practice, offshore blockades and amphibious landings, the official Xinhua news agency said.

Russia, keen to boost military sales to China, is showcasing advanced bombers and fighters as well as refueling and transport planes for the eight days of exercises, dubbed ''Peace Mission 2005.''

``The joint drill aimed to improve the capabilities of the Chinese and Russian armies in combating new threats, dealing with crises and organising coordinated actions in the backdrop of the fight against terrorism, separatism and extremism,'' Xinhua said.

Analysts say China and Russia also mean to send a message to the United States about their growing influence.

``The main target is the United States. Both sides want to improve their position for bargaining in terms of security, politics and economics,'' said Jin Canrong, a professor of international relations at the People's University of China, said before the war games started.

Informed of the coastal drills but not invited to observe them, the United States has been muted in its response, urging Beijing and Moscow to avoid disrupting regional stability.

China's foreign minister, Li Zhaoxing, said in Latvia on Friday the exercises ``are not directed at any third party.''

But Russian daily Nezavismaya gazeta said on Thursday: ''This is above all an assault on the uni-polar world that has so suited Washington since the end of the Cold War.''

China and Russia, which share a 4,300-kmborder, have been growing closer since the Cold War ended, in part due to China's efforts to tap into Russian energy resources to feed its booming economy.

The two are also players in six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear crisis, reflecting shared security interests that are being further underlined by the military exercises.

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????????本文所表述的观点不代表道琼斯的观点

吸取中国发展经验

Sy Sternberg

中国早已摈弃曾经长期实行的闭关锁国政策，如今已发展成为世界级的贸易大国，凭藉规模和成本优势活跃在竞争激烈的国际市场上。人们普遍认为，再有一代人到两代人的时间，中国的经济将与美国比肩。

中国是如何实现翻天覆地的变化的？从历史上看，中国一直拥有丰富的资源和令人敬畏的实力，但只是断断续续地寻找加入国际社会的机会。徘徊在国际大家庭之外多年以后，中国再度敞开了欢迎海外投资和从事国际贸易的大门。尽管部分国家仍对全球化存在争论，中国却在牢牢地抓住这次机会。

有人对中国经济的扩张步伐心存警惕，希望加以遏制。我们从美国通过贸易壁垒限制中国商品进口的各类提案中可以看到这一战略的本质。

遏制中国国际贸易的企图不仅是不现实的，也很可能损害美国自身的经济和就业增长。中国的繁荣和快速增加的中产阶级是美国面临的最重大的机遇之一。

美国几乎所有工业领域的制造商──从商业飞机到医疗设备，乃至集成电路的制造商──都认识到中国是全球最有潜力的出口市场之一。比如，波音公司(Boeing)很快就将开始执行来自中国的60架商业飞机订单。限制美中贸易对美国就业增长的负面影响可能要比中国更大。

美国的农业也日益从中国的贸易政策中获益：自2001年加入世界贸易组织(WTO)以来，中国已经成为美国农产品增长最快的出口市场之一。出口额增长两倍多，从2001年的17亿美元增加到2004年的61亿美元。

这还仅仅是出口方面。去年，美国企业在中国的子公司共向中国消费者和企业销售了750多亿美元的产品。

很明显，美国采取贸易保护主义的做法没有任何好处。我们应该采取扩大自身优势的战略，而不是试图压制竞争。这种战略包括5个要素：

--首先，我们必须利用美洲的经济机遇。国会(Congress)批准的中美洲自由贸易协定(Cafta)是增加美国产品出口渠道的重要一步。接下来，应该重新启动包含34个国家的美洲自由贸易区(Free Trade Area of the Americas)进程。预计美洲自由贸易区将推动美国、加拿大和拉丁美洲的经济每年增长1,300亿美元。

--其次，我们应该深化跨大西洋经济对话(Transatlantic Business Dialogue)，并努力同欧盟(European Union)签署自由贸易协定。这将刺激增长，并鼓励西欧进行改革，以维持其全球竞争力。

--第三，我们必须加强在亚洲的贸易活动，从该地区国家越来越密切的经济相互依存关系中受益。更重要的是，我们可以利用印度总理辛格(Manmohan Singh)最近成功访美的契机，加深同印度的贸易往来。美国还应加快同越南等东南亚国家的贸易谈判，同日本和韩国进行对话。中国已经在这方面采取积极行动，加强同周边经济体的经济联系了。（去年，中国取代美国成为日本的最大贸易伙伴国。）

--第四，我们必须确保WTO内部全球贸易谈判的成功。这将进一步鼓励中国和几乎每一个重要贸易国信守加入WTO的承诺，遵守外贸准则。

--最后，如果我们希望迎接新的竞争和挑战，我们必须保持国内局面井然有序。根据美国商务部(Commerce Department)近期的调查，美国企业最担心的问题不是外国进口，而是国内的政策和问题。制造商称，医疗保健成本上升、税负沉重、额外的管制和研究及教育投资的不合理是长期竞争力的主要障碍。

中国经济的成功创造了新的财富，无论是中国人还是美国人都从中受益。作为一个建立在自由经济体制基础上的社会，我们不应抱怨当今中国企业家的咄咄逼人。我们从中国身上能够得到的教训是：闭关锁国不是解决问题的办法。我们必须做最利于我们国家的事情：积极创新、鼓励企业家精神、提高生产率。这才是美国繁荣昌盛的必经之路。

（编者按：斯滕伯格(Sy Sternberg)是纽约人寿保险集团(New York Life Insurance Company)的董事长兼首席执行长。）


香港时间2005年08月11日10:49更新

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英寻求成为中国优惠贸易伙伴 女王计划明年访华

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http://www.sina.com.cn 2005年08月15日01:44 华夏时报

　　英国《独立报》报道英国政府寻求成为中国优惠贸易伙伴，并称：英女王计划明年访问中国

　　英国《独立报》昨天报道，英国政府正寻求成为中国的优惠贸易伙伴，英国女王打算明年访华。报道说，英国女王正式访华具有重大意义，英国外交官正和中国政府商讨具体的访问安排。


　　如果伊丽莎白二世时隔20年的第二次中国之旅成行，中英关系将有望迈上一个新的台阶。

　　近年中英关系发展平稳

　　伦敦恐怖爆炸案发生后的一件事为近年来的中英两国制造了一个象征味颇浓的标识。上月26日，中国的两个英国游首发团受到英国方面的高规格招待，抵达伦敦的第2天安德鲁王子接见了全体团员，英国旅游局董事长还特地为首发团举行了欢迎早餐会。英国对中国游客的礼遇当然只是带有感激意味的个例，实际上近年来中英经贸关系的发展，足以让观察家们振奋：据统计，2004年英国成为欧盟最大对华投资国和第三大对华贸易伙伴。中英双边贸易额达到近200亿美元，英国在华累计投资项目4272个，实际使用金额122.1亿美元。

　　经济上的互利对政治层面也发生了影响。在美国国内对人民币汇率问题不断施加压力之时，英国与美国保持了距离。英国财政部内阁部长达斯·布朗6月明确表示，英国政府不会对人民币升值施加压力。两军交往也十分活跃。去年英国海上部队司令率英海军舰艇编队访问了上海和青岛，并与中国海军举行了海上联合搜救演习。在7月英国接任欧盟轮值主席国后，英驻华大使呼吁政府继续为对华军售解禁做出努力。可以说，中英关系处于相当平稳的时期。

　　中英关系发展仍有局限

　　多年来，英国的一些政策一直受到不少人的抨击，在其国内也有不少反对声音。受非议最多的就是对外政策上对美国“萧规曹随”。持久而牢固的英美同盟关系使英国的外交独立色彩变得相当模糊，而且并没有给英国带来更多的利益。

　　此外，大英帝国没落后，英国的海外诉求大大减少，岛屿情结变得格外浓重，所以对大陆国家———无论西欧或更远的亚洲，都采取相自我的态度，与多数国家特别是非英联邦成员的国家不即不离。具体到中英关系上，在意识形态和文化上存在的客观差别，导致英国更多地采取了与美国近似的立常英国担任欧盟主席国后，卢森堡等国一直推进的对华军售解禁即告暂停就是一例。目前，中英两国的亲密关系主要体现在经济关系上，虽然两国在战略安全、人权、军控、环保等领域建立并保持了磋商及对话机制，但在现阶段还很难变为卓有成效的合作机制。

　　战略伙伴关系有潜力可挖中英全面战略伙伴关系还远没有达到应该达到的深度，但这并不代表中英双边关系没有向前发展的可能。事实上，英国政坛与美国一些政客对中国的看法仍有不少差别，中英关系提升既具备现实条件，也有现实动力。

　　和有些国家对中国担忧不同，英国认为，已经成为世界经济增长引擎之一的中国是英国经济发展的机会。英国认为中国会开放更多的市场，英国企业有机会来发挥优势。英国金融企业在这方面跑到了前头，而英国政府也鼓励更多英国企业向中国投资。同时，英国也认识到了中国企业实力增强并非美国一些人认为的会对“国家安全造成威胁”，相反大力鼓励中国企业向英国投资。对于能源问题，英国提出要必须使石油供应和消费的数据更加透明，以更好地了解石油短缺的程度。这与个别国家认为中国是“能源危机主导者”的看法相比更加可龋英国还表示欧盟应给予中国其要求承认的市场经济地位。

　　对于中国来说，英国的发展经验中有许多值得中国学习。

　　中英已将贸易与投资、财政金融、能源、科技、教育文化、环保作为双方今后重点合作领域。此外作为世界的老牌大国，英国对国际社会仍有相当影响，中国加强与英国的政治互信，有利于中国维护自己的核心利益。

　　英国是最早承认新中国的西方国家。经过几十年的波折，中英已迎来了一个加强合作的新机遇。以未来为着眼点并站在战略高度，中英的利益共同点就有望不断扩大，战略伙伴关系就可以名至实归。显然，这也是英国要寻求的目标。(徐立凡）

http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2005-08-15/01446689524s.shtml

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??社论/言论/天下事 2005-08-15

战后东亚六十年

　　在1945年8月15日，日本天皇宣布接受盟国的《波茨坦宣言》，承认战败投降。以此为标志，亚洲战事结束，第二次世界大战在全球范围内最终结束。

　　战后60年来，亚洲地区经历了一波又一波历史性巨变。从摆脱殖民统治到战后重建，一直到工业化进程，亚洲人民几个世纪以来第一次以真正当家作主的姿态，在战争废墟上开始追逐民族兴旺与国家富强之梦。

　　从70年代起，当日本开始步入发达国家行列之时，以“亚洲四小龙”为代表的发展中经济体，也开始展现其特有的生机和巨大潜力，并且成为世界经济舞台上一个不可忽视的群体。在短短几十年时间里，在一穷二白的艰难条件下，亚洲的政治家和人民凭借着自己的远见、智慧和辛勤劳动，创造了战后第一个经济奇迹。

　　紧接着，从70年代末开始，中国这个巨龙也从内乱和与世隔绝的状态中苏醒，并且继“四小龙”之后，创造了经济持续高速增长的又一个奇迹。不仅如此，在中国融入全球经济体系之后，亚洲乃至世界经济的面貌也在相应地发生演变。

　　伴随着中国的崛起，亚洲另一个巨人印度也开始了经济起飞的进程，并且和中国一样积极参与东亚经济的大循环。一边有中日印韩四大单一经济体，一边是作为一个整体的亚细安，彼此之间的经济融合进程，正在使东亚地区迈向崭新的繁荣境界。

　　战后60年，亚洲安全格局也发生了巨大的变化。尤其是在冷战结束之后，国家的现实利益取代了虚幻的意识形态，政治互信取代了战略猜疑，原本相互敌视的国家之间，逐步实现了关系的正常化。

　　其中最值得提出的是，亚细安与中国之间、亚细安与中日韩之间的安全对话，以及美国、印度等国的相继参与，不仅增强本区域的政治和军事互信，而且还为未来东亚安全机制的建立提供了一个雏形。各种双边和多边的战略对话，使本地区出现了从未有过的和谐局面。

　　然而，尽管东亚地区的现实与过去那段战争越来越远，但历史遗留下来的一些关键问题，至今并没有得到彻底的解决。

　　其中最为突出的，就是有关国家对历史责任的定义，存在着本质上的分歧。近年来，日本的历史教科书以及日本政治领袖参拜靖国神社等事件，在中韩等邻国引起的强烈反应，就是这一重大分歧的直接反映。它妨碍了这几个大国之间的和谐相处与合作，而且还给本区域的稳定蒙上了阴影。

　　除了战争遗留问题，本区域还存在着其他潜在的冲突和危机，包括在朝鲜半岛和台湾海峡。以更广的视野看，崛起的中国和世界唯一超强美国将如何相处，已经成为牵动亚洲稳定与安全局势的最关键因素之一。

　　回顾世界历史，包括两次世界大战的历史，我们发现有些战争并非是不能避免的，而一个新兴强国的出现，也并不必然意味着世界秩序就会受到挑战和威胁。只要有关国家愿意和平共处，共同繁荣，而不是在战略上诉诸遏制和围堵，在经济上设置障碍和壁垒，那么，任何利益冲突都不可能导致战争。两次世界大战已经给人类留下了惨痛的教训，现在，各国政治家的任务就是要通过对历史的回顾和反思，不断地积累预防战争而不是发动战争的智慧。

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??中国成为美国百年外交新课题

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● 杜平

　　过去百年的世界风云，可以说是美国独步天下的春秋史。19世纪末美国把西班牙赶出美洲大陆后，便迅速向亚太地区扩张，直到1898年占领菲律宾，把西班牙赶出亚洲。由此开始，美国在通往全球霸主巅峰的道路上稳步攀升。

　　在此过程中，美国在欧洲和亚洲多次遭遇新老列强的挑战，但它凭借着强大的军事和经济实力，尤其是具有深厚理论基础的外交谋略，对挑战者予以征服或遏制。

　　例如在亚洲，美国始终感到有一股巨大的威胁来自日本。为了消除威胁，美国首先利用俄日两国在东北亚的利益争夺，诱使它们相互牵制和消耗实力；然后借助自己主导的“五强裁军”机制，大大削弱了已经跃居世界第三位的日本海军。最后，日本因偸袭珍珠港而招来杀身之祸，美国趁机予以毁灭性反击，使之彻底丧失了挑战美国的勇气和能力。

　　此后几十年，美国以实力为后盾，通过外交上运筹帷幄，编织和主导着世界政治、经济和安全秩序。

对华战略不适应现实

　　但是，最近几年来，随着中国经济的崛起，美国显露出“双重人格”，一方面在世界事务中继续逞强，另一方面却在不断地示弱。面对中国纺织品、人民币汇率、中国企业海外收购行为、中国与其他国家的交往、中国在海外拓展能源以及中国军事力量的提升，美国处处都感到有威胁。一个举世无双的超级强国，为何表现得好像不堪一击和缺乏自信？

　　美国的这种焦虑与不安，与它在过去百年里无情对付强劲对手的情形，似乎很不相同。从最初崛起到称霸世界，美国早已形成了一整套行之有效的外交谋略。所谓的例外主义、单边主义、门罗主义、命定扩张主义、进步帝国主义、威尔逊主义以及遏制战略，这些概念可以说已经渗透到美国不同流派的外交决策者的血液之中，不仅得到传承和实施，而且也是卓有成效。

　　对于中国，从尼逊总统开始至今，总共七任美国总统的对华政策，或多或少都受到威尔逊的自由国际主义以及遏制战略的影响，其手段是接触与遏制交互使用。应该承认，在中国最近几十年的演变和发展脉络中，中美之间的互动是清晰可见的主要线条之一。对此，美国政府官员感到很自豪。不久前，副国务卿佐利克在北京就说，中国不仅已经融入到国际经济和安全体系中，而且还在其中发挥着日益重要的作用，这就是美国历届政府所追求的目标。也就是说，美国认为它过去对中国的外交战略是成功的。

　　客观地看，美国的对华政策虽然始终摇摆不定，但在总体上确实是有成效的。然而，在目前，美国政府的言行已经表露出，它的中国战略似乎已经迷失了方向。美国面对中国崛起时比较急躁、缺乏自信的反应，就是最具体的表征。

与过去完全不同的“对手”

　　在更深层次，美国上述七大外交传统，似乎都不太适用于当今的中国。从表面上看，有两个概念好像有针对性。

　　其一是进步帝国主义的概念。无论任何国家，不用说构成威胁，只要它“妨碍了帝国的进步”，美国都要毫不犹豫地消除之；其二是在美苏冷战时期实施的遏制战略，后来已经转用到中国身上。可是，由于前者产生于巧取豪夺的帝国主义初期阶段，所以不适合当今文明时代的现实；而后者在进行了十多年的实践之后，已经证明越来越没有作用。

　　因此，如何认识和应付正在上升的中国，如何处理和中国的关系，已经成为美国外交战略家们百年来未曾遇过的崭新课题。而其中最大的特点是，中国完全不同于美国以前遇到的任何一个被视为对手的强国。

　　其原因是，在双边层面，由于中国政治和社会的转型过程还远远没有结束，因此美国对其发展方向无法作出长期的预测；由于中国既愿意与美国进行战略合作，又不回避与美国进行战略竞争，因此美国对其敌友身份无法自信地作出确认；由于对中国既怀着期待又抱有疑虑，所以，美国在双边交往中不能全心全意地投入，而是顾虑重重，瞻前顾后；由于双方利益的交叉与融合日益密切和广泛，因此美国在很多事务上投鼠忌器，难捏分寸。

　　在国际层面，由于中国在美国提倡的世界体系中越来越有影响力，因此，美国辨别敌友关系的传统标准已经失效。与此同时，在亚洲乃至世界其他地区，中国在现有国际体系中的重要角色，已经获得普遍承认和接受。美国即使还有孤立和遏制中国的政治决心，但却已经失去了实现这一目标的必要手段。

复杂心态下的复杂关系

　　自建交以来，中美关系的性质其实一直都没有持续和稳定地确定下来。有时候似乎是敌人，有时候好像是朋友。而在目前这个阶段，双方似乎是非敌非友，或者说亦敌亦友。对这种本身就有内在矛盾的双边关系，即使是再有远见的决策者，恐怕都难以予以长期的规划与把握。

　　从美国政府官员一些模棱两可的表述中就可以看出，直到今天为止，华盛顿还没有足够的信心对中国的身份作出明确的定位。

　　佐利克副国务卿上星期在北京出席中美战略对话后说：“中国日益增强的影响力，使人们对其未来方向产生一些疑问。这不是消极的，而是说有不确定性。”而布什总统最近在几个场合谈到中美关系时，都以“复杂”一词予以概括。

　　毫无疑问，中美关系确实是复杂，但与此同时，美国外交决策者的心态也是复杂的。正因如此，在面对中国崛起的事实时，华盛顿作出的反应也很复杂。

　　在克林顿时代，中美之间曾试图为双边关系建立一个战略框架，但后来被布什政府轻易地推翻。现在，经过五年的重新认识，华盛顿已经开始与北京进行战略对话，试图建立一个更符合现实基础的战略框架，或者至少是一个概念性的框架。

　　然而，中美之间其实不必急于再搞一个虚有其名的框架，重要的是双边交往的内涵和质量。只要双方决策层能经常坐在一起倾听对方，效果也许更好。而就美国而言，既然外交决策者不能从过去的战略概念中找到灵感，那就应该试图在接触和交往中去寻找新的答案。

·作者是《联合早报》评论员

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《瞭望》文章：实现中国外交“话语权”



2005年08月07日13:06 【字号 大 中 小】【留言】【论坛】【打印】【关闭】


　　盛夏的北京，热浪滚滚，北京外交舞台上精彩纷呈，演绎着一幕幕令人眩目的外交大戏。在国际生态环境的大转换过程中，中国新外交初露峥嵘。

　　搭建北京舞台

　　北京，一个引人注目的国际外交大舞台；北京，一个观察国际形势发展变化的日益重要的窗口。

　　在中国的积极斡旋和 有关各方的共同努力下，中断１３个月的朝核问题六方会谈终于恢复，７月２６日，各路人马聚集北京，开启了第四轮会谈之门。此次会谈只有开始的日期，却没有定下闭会的日期。连日来，美、朝、中、韩、俄、日在六边框架下进行了一系列的双边与多边磋商。会谈气氛总体良好，各方围绕如何实现朝鲜半岛无核化、确定六方会谈的总体目标等议题进行了坦率、深入、务实的探讨。但由于朝美之间仍存在着实质性的分歧，六方会谈仍面临不少荆棘。

　　同时，８月１日至２日，中美在京举行战略对话，这是中美建交以来首次举行的定期高端战略对话，话题涉及贸易、能源、台海和平以及中美关系中的其他重要问题。中国外交部长李肇星在会见来华进行首次中美战略对话的美国常务副国务卿佐利克时说，中美首轮战略对话成功举行，标志着中美间对话与合作达到了一个新水平，有助于双方加强互信，扩大共识，促进两国建设性合作关系在新世纪健康稳定发展。

　　此前，美国国务卿赖斯于７月９日至１０日访华。新任欧盟委员会主席巴罗佐接踵而至，于７月１４日至１８日对中国进行正式访问。

　　８月１８日至２５日，中俄将举行“和平使命——２００５”联合军事演习。演习将在俄罗斯的符拉迪沃斯托克和中国的山东半岛及其附近海域举行，届时将邀请上海合作组织及其观察员派员观摩。

　　针对中国外交的新变化，俄罗斯《苏维埃俄罗斯报》７月１９日一篇题为“带有中国特色的外交”文章中说，中国再次充满自信地展现了作为一个地区大国的影响力。中国在所有感兴趣的国际问题上越来越奉行独立自主的立场，这不是口头宣言式的立场，而是非常现实的、令人不得不尊重的立场。

　　软实力与硬实力并举

　　中国不仅重视增强和积累“硬实力”，也注重“软实力”的培育与塑造。在过去二十多年来的改革开放中，中国的经济处于快速增长期，经济水平与质量均有明显提高，在世界经济中的排序前移。同时，中国的软实力也在节节攀升。这使中国外交柔中带刚，刚中见柔。

　　中国的发展道路和发展模式已经成为世界的一个热门话题。中国“和为贵”的“和合”文化正得到越来越多的国际认同。中国深厚的文化传统底蕴为中国外交提供了强有力的支持，使中国享有独特的后发优势。这有利于塑造对中国有利的国际“软环境”。

　　中国在国际上的软实力的增强，或者国际环境的改善必然会体现在国际机制中被承认的地位。中国不仅应熟悉和善于利用国际机制来维护自身利益，还应当尽可能增强在国际规则制订方面的影响力，尽量参与制订国际规则。在国际关系中，中国更积极倡导与推动多边主义，维护联合国的权威，推进国际关系民主化与法制化。在高举和平、发展、合作的旗帜下，中国在国际上应当追求国际道义，它们体现在国际法和基本原则中，体现在维护国际法地位上。

　　中国将亲仁善邻的文化理念用于塑造中国与邻国的关系，与邻国一同发展、繁荣。中国要成为亚洲的中国，融入亚洲，积极参与东亚的一体化建设。东亚的一体化可为中国提供更多的战略空间。今年底的首次东亚峰会将在马来西亚召开，这意味着东亚一体化将提升到一个崭新的阶段，意味着区域内公共意志的形成，有利于消除误解。

　　中国十分重视东亚合作。７月２６日至８月１日，中国外长李肇星出席东盟与中日韩（１０＋３）外长会、东盟与对话国会议（ＰＭＣ）和第十二届东盟地区论坛（ＡＲＦ）外长会，并于会后对老挝和缅甸进行正式访问。形成鲜明对比的是，美国国务卿赖斯和日本外相都因故未能与会。一些敏感的美国观察家们发出了这样的感叹：美国再一次拱手把机会让给了中国人。中国外长利用此机会，再一次对东南亚国家展开“外交攻势”，增进了中国与东亚国家的关系，拉近了中国与它们之间的距离。

　　大周边与大国关系并重

　　在可预见的将来，中国仍将是一个地区性力量，中国发展的基本立足点是周边。只有立足周边，才能更好地拓展国家战略利益，扩大国际影响力。中国在迅速崛起的同时，迫切需要在世界上树立一个走和平发展道路的大国形象。面对这样一个热点高发地区，中国作为一个后兴大国，在和平发展道路上势必面临重重困难与障碍，如何进一步推进与大国之间的合作关系更具紧迫性。在此情况下，中国应当考虑如何将近期利益与长远利益相结合，将大周边与大国关系相结合，共同塑造一个有利的国际发展环境。

　　大周边环境，不只是一个地理概念，也是一个政治、经济概念。在这个概念中，既包括与中国直接相邻的国家，也包括那些虽然不直接接壤却与中国有重大利益关系的国家或力量，它们可视为中国周边的延伸。中国日益将周边战略与推进大国关系整合于一体，使之互相推动，相得益彰。

　　一方面，中国努力与周边国家扩大共有利益，寻求利益的重叠。中国的发展将逐步由“经济福利论”扩展到“安全福利论”，建立可持续安全。寻求利益的重叠可以减少因大国的崛起与发展带来的对地区秩序的震荡或冲击。近年来，中国大大增强了对东亚的经济福利，扩散互惠。然而，只停留在经济福利层面还是不够的，因为周边国家从长远来看，最为担心的还是未来安全的保障。因此中国与周边的合作需要把安全视为重要内容，用“可持续安全”维护和确保“可持续经济利益”。

　　另一方面，中国注重在周边与美、俄、印、日等大国力量互动。一是通过多边机制或国际组织与其他大国保持沟通和互动，如亚太经合组织、东盟地区论坛、“１０＋３”会议，上海合作组织、八国峰会等。中国国家主席胡锦涛于６月３０日至７月７日对俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦进行国事访问，出席在哈萨克斯坦首都阿斯塔纳举行的上海合作组织元首会议及在英国举行的“八国集团与中国、印度、巴西、南非、墨西哥五国领导人对话会”。二是通过强化双边关系与交流，提升合作水平。２００５年６月２日，李肇星外长和俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫代表中俄两国政府共同签署了“互换《中俄关于中俄国界东段的补充协定》批准书的证书”，并交换批准书和证书，这标志着协定正式生效，中俄长达４３００多公里的边界线走向以法律形式全部确定下来，中俄边界问题从此得到彻底解决。中俄边界将成为两国人民和平、友好与合作的纽带，为中俄两国不断扩大和深化各领域的互利合作奠定更加坚实的基础。中印关系近来也有较大改善，高层接触增多，一些历史遗留问题正在逐步得到解决。

　　中俄印关系也有了新的发展。６月２日，中国外交部长李肇星在俄罗斯远东城市符拉迪沃斯托克与俄外交部长拉夫罗夫和印度外交部长辛格举行第四次非正式会晤。三方均认为，三国对２１世纪和平与发展面临的主要问题有着一致和相似的看法，都主张遵循国际法准则，在和平共处五项原则基础上发展国与国关系，倡导多边主义，推动世界多极化、国际关系民主化和发展模式多样化，促进全球经济朝着有利于各国共同繁荣的方向发展，建立公正合理的国际秩序。此后的７月１日，中俄发表了关于２１世纪国际秩序的联合声明。

　　当然也要看到存在的困难与障碍，如中日关系的结构性矛盾空前突出。美日捆绑连体倾向加强，美国希望最终使日本变成“远东的英国”。这主要是出于其称霸世界的需要，实际上是要把日本变成其在亚太地区的“战略附庸”。为了达此目标，美国可能不得不“迁就”日本。但日本毕竟不是英国，美国将来能在多大程度上继续“掌控日本”，而日本是否也甘愿受制于此，恐怕还是一个未知数。反观日本却采取远交近攻的外交，一味脱亚入美，自拒于亚洲邻国，结果只会使其更加孤立。中日关系也因此遭遇重新定位的困惑。

　　增加战略透明度

　　中国崛起撬动了世界政治、经济格局的传统板块，为世界的发展创造了新的机遇和条件；同时，世界政经形势的剧变也深刻地影响着中国未来的发展。中国需要更明确地向世界阐述自己的战略意图，以消除对中国的误解和误判。

　　过去２０多年改革开放的实践告诉人们：中国是在不损害当前国际秩序的前提下发展起来的，而且这个国际秩序还为中国的发展预留了相当广阔的空间。中国不是要做世界秩序的颠覆者，而是要做世界秩序的建设者。中国走的是一条内涵式发展道路，中国的发展不是为挑战其他大国，而是寻求平等公平的发展机会，实现国际关系的民主化，维护世界的和平与稳定。

　　中国加入世界贸易组织和其他众多的国际组织就是将自身视为世界发展的一部分，愿意承担应有的责任和义务。因此，树立负责任的大国形象，增强国际行为的可预见性这一点日益重要。７月２８日，来自中国、美国、日本、韩国、澳大利亚和印度六国的外长或代表，在老挝首都万象发表《亚太清洁发展和气候新伙伴计划意向宣言》。六国根据《联合国气候变化框架条约》的要求和各自的国情，将在气候变化等方面加强合作。

　　应当看到，中美之间的战略沟通至关重要。一段时期以来，贸易赤字、人民币汇率、知识产权保护、中海油竞购优尼科、能源问题及美国国内“中国威胁论”的发酵等，使中美关系变得复杂，甚至可以说进入了困难或敏感时期。美国一些现实主义者，认为中国必然会挑战美国的主宰地位，称中美关系会演变为竞争或更糟糕的关系，这是一件“肯定会发生，具体时间尚不确定”的事。其结论是：美国应该谋求阻止中国的崛起。

　　但也有一些学者不以为然，认为美国若要遏制中国注定会失败。今年６月２０日，《美国新闻与世界报道》发表了美国前国务院政策研究室主任理查德·哈斯的题为“如何与中国相处”的文章。他说，各国的国际地位主要是其人口、文化、自然资源、教育体系、经济政策、政治稳定性和外交政策等综合因素来决定的。美国即使试图阻止中国的崛起，实现这一目标的前景目前也不明朗。美国试图围堵中国崛起的努力，肯定会引起中国的仇视，并导致中国在全球范围内与美国争夺利益。他认为，应把中国整合进国际体系。更为重要的是，美国不应该尝试着去阻止一个强大中国的崛起。美国需要其他国家变得足够强大，以便作为其盟友来共同应对全球化带来的许多挑战：核武器扩散、恐怖主义、传染病、毒品和全球气候变暖。中国是否会变得强大不应该成为美国外交政策的议题，中国如何使用它日益增长的实力，才应该成为美国关注的焦点。

　　可见，对于如何与中国共处，如何应对可能深刻影响世界力量格局与秩序的崛起的中国，美国国内还没有达成共识。中美合作与摩擦面同步发展，使得双方从战略层面上把握好这种互动关系发展的节奏更有现实意义。

　　中美首次战略对话就是在此情况下展开的。中美之间这一高层对话的启动和机制化将是中美关系由“外力推动型”向“内需型”转化。换言之，过去中美关系的发展相当程度上需要借助外力，如在冷战期间是“苏联威胁”使中美靠近，“９·１１”事件以后，反恐成为中美关系发展的助力，而今这种情况正在发生变化，中美越来越需要从自身利益出发来强化双边关系。中美已经形成某种意义上的利益共同体，双边的经贸在２００４年已经超过１７００亿美元，中国６６００亿美元外汇储备的约７０％用于购买美国的国债。两国已共同成为世界经济的发动机，成为维护亚太地区安全的力量。这种来源于内部之需以加强两国战略沟通的诉求，将成为今后推动中美关系发展的原动力。

　　以信而立

　　全球化浪潮波涛汹涌，其中蕴藏着多少机遇、风险和陷阱？中国面临的周边环境并不乐观，特别是东亚地区正是世界热点汇聚之地：朝鲜半岛的核问题山重水复；日本要做“远东的英国”；东南亚地区一些国家政局不稳；台湾岛内的台独势力蠢蠢欲动……传统安全与非传统安全交织，同时，该地区多边国际安全机制的缺失，使得东亚安全困境更加突出。这就要求中国外交要有居安思危的意识，更要有创新意识。

　　常言道，人无信不立，对于一个国家来说，道理也一样，因此中国在发展过程中尤其注重“信”的塑造。这个“信”就是“言而有信”，“行而有信”，“言必信，信必果”，以此树立中国的国际地位。正是在此背景下，中国新外交才赢得越来越多的尊重，“话语权”在稳步提高。（阮宗泽 作者为中国国际问题研究所副所长）


来源：瞭望



（责任编辑：吴皓）

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人民网>>国际>>纵论天下 2005年04月12日13:25



建立"和平"与"和谐"的国际经济政治新秩序
清华大学国际问题研究所 张利华

　　1955年4月18日至24日，第一次亚非会议在印度尼西亚万隆举行。“这是人类有史以来第一次有色人种的洲际会议”（苏加诺）。 50年来，万隆会议所确立的“和平共处十项原则”为世界各国和国际社会所承认，成为处理国与国关系的主要原则。

　　“和平共处十项原则”是在“和平共处五项原则”的基础上阐发的。“和平共处五项原则”是在1954年4月29日中华人民共和国总理周恩来和印度总理尼赫鲁签订的《中华人民共和国和印度共和国关于中国西藏地方和印度之间的通商和交通协定》中首次提出来的。印度同意中国提出的“互相尊重主权和领土完整、互不侵犯、互不干涉内政、平等互利、和平共处”五项原则作为指导两国关系的准则，并在该协定的序文中对五项原则给予正式的确定。同年6月，周恩来总理访问印度和缅甸。在中印两国总理和中缅两国总理分别发表的《联合声明》中，和平共处五项原则再次得到确认。

　　“和平共处五项原则”首先由中国人提出来绝非偶然，它有着悠久的历史渊源和深厚的历史积淀。“和平共处五项原则”体现了一种追求“和谐”的思想。追求“和谐”是古老的中华文化的核心价值观。古代中国的儒家、道家和从印度传入并扎根于中华沃土的佛家都崇尚这一价值观。故宫三大殿“太和殿”、“中和殿”和“保和殿”的名称就反映了这一中华文化的精华。

　　“和谐”这两个字看起来很简单，实际上内涵极其丰富。它既表达了勿走极端的阴阳平衡的思想，又反映了多样化和共同性并存的观念，它既是一种理想和境界，又是一种处理现实问题的方法和手段。这种“柔中有刚，刚柔并济”的思想在人类历史上具有持久而深远的影响力。

　　今天，我国主张改变旧的国际经济政治秩序，建立国际经济政治新秩序。我国领导人和政府发言人在国际社会各种场合发表看法，主张以“和平共处五项原则”为基础建立国际经济政治新秩序，并提出了一系列原则。那么，建立国际经济政治新秩序的主题词是什么？应当根据什么原则来界定其主题词？这确实是一个值得深入思考和讨论的问题。

　　笔者认为，建立国际经济政治新秩序的主题词应当既简练又精典，包容性极强，涵盖面极广，并具有深刻而持久性的意义。该主题词不是为某一种社会制度或某一些国家所用，而是为东、西、南、北世界各国、各民族所接受，具有普世性。它应当是既顺应自然与社会客观规律，又适应人类社会发展潮流，反映人类光明和美好的理想，同时又具有很强的现实性、针对性和可行性。所以，选用价值观层面的词语，才能使该主题词体现上述要求。

　　为此，笔者建议把建立国际经济政治新秩序的主题词定为“和平”与“和谐”，即：“建立和平与和谐的国际经济政治新秩序”。

　　“和平”与“和谐”这两个词在当今世界具有极其广阔的包容性和涵盖面，同时又具有极强的针对性和现实性。非正义的战争、暴力、恐怖主义是与“和平”相违背的。霸权主义、强权政治、单边主义、强势民族欺压弱势民族等种种行为是与“和谐”相违背的。所以，“和平”与“和谐”既是人类的共同理想和追求，又是反对非正义战争、暴力和恐怖主义的现实手段和途径。它既倡导东、西、南、北各国平等互利，合作互助，又包含着反对霸权主义、强权政治、单边主义以及强势民族欺压弱势民族的主张。它既维护发展中国家的利益，也把发达国家的进一步发展引向“和平”与“和谐”的架构之内。它既倡导各国求同存异，和平共处，又强调人类在多样性和共同性中共存共荣。这种从中华文化中提炼和升华出来的 “和平”与“和谐”思想可以为不同社会制度和意识形态的国家与民族所接受，成为促进世界和平与发展的普世性原则。

　　建立“和平与和谐的国际经济政治新秩序”包括政治、经济、文化三方面的内容：

　　建立国际政治新秩序：各国互相尊重主权和领土完整、互不侵犯、互不干涉内政、和平共处。促进国际关系的民主化。

　　建立国际经济新秩序：各国合作互助，平等互利，共同发展。促进全球经济均衡发展。

　　建立国际文化新秩序：维护和尊重各国、各民族的多样性，承认人类的共同性。

　　总之，建立国际经济政治新秩序要走很长的路，需要爱好“和平”与“和谐”的国家和人民进行长期而艰苦的努力。然而，只要我们把握适应历史发展潮流，顺应客观规律，我们就可以通过不懈的努力在这条道路上不断前进。



来源：人民网 （责任编辑：李海元）

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人民网>>时政>>综合报道 2005年01月27日14:09



中国外交走向成熟 经济外交在改变整体外交版图

　　笔者在欧洲国家做报告时常被问及，这十多年来，中国的经济怎么会起飞得那么快？笔者认为，它的发生是许多国内外因素促成的。最主要的是，邓小平的改革开放政策对头，接受了市场经济这一合乎客观经济规律的理论。这种被挤压多年后爆发出来的力量是无穷的。另一个重要的因素是前苏联的瓦解，中国减少了最大的威胁，冷战结束，使中国有一个相对的和平环境。

　　我把中国形容为一条古老而沉重的巨船，在大海中航行。尽管国外还有一股邪恶力量，想方设法阻止它的前进，但是，它坚如磐石，一旦找到了航行的方向———经济救国，它就会乘风破浪，勇往直前。

　　经济全球化中国是受益者

　　笔者对西方提出的世界经济全球一体化的方案，至今仍持一定的保留意见，因为它对人口少、资金薄弱的第三世界国家来说，没有什么好处，它们无能为力，只能听从世界经济大国的摆布。但对中国这么一个拥有960万平方公里土地、13亿人口的大国来说，就不一样了。就好像在拳击场上打拳，一个两米多高、200公斤重的拳击手走上台来，他再笨重，你想打倒他也不那么容易。自从中国加入WTO以后，每说一句话、每提一个意见，别国都要掂掂分量，考虑考虑。更何况，中国往往是代表第三世界的国家说话，有足够的后盾。

　　韬光养晦，以外交促经济

　　邓小平的经济改革开放政策之所以被人称道，是因为这20多年来的实践，使中国人民脱离了贫困，走向了富强。他提出的“韬光养晦”形成了一条新的外交路线，潜力无穷。尽管有人批评中国“韬光养晦”、不与欺侮中国的国家直接碰撞的政策，说这失去了大国的风度，灭了中国人的志气，但实践证明，它是成功的。最关键的是，中国集中精力埋首建设，使经济起飞，它所发出的巨大威力使全世界地动山摇。

　　笔者发现，这一年来，中国已经从被动的“以经济促外交”，转到有意识的主动的“以外交促经济”。这是一个由量变到质变的过程，很值得深入探讨。

　　且看去年中国眼花缭乱的“以外交促经济”、全面出击的各种活动，令第一世界国家目瞪口呆，让第三世界拍手欢迎。首先是中国的近邻东南亚国家，自朱镕基总理首先提出和东盟国家建立自由贸易区以来，现在已经到了逐渐落实、具体研究互相减免关税的阶段，一反过去西方大国只考虑本国利益、剥削小国的历史，消除了东盟国家的忧虑。在处理南沙群岛等争议问题上，中国提出共同开发，也争取了主动，缓和了中国与东盟国家的摩擦。胡锦涛主席出访拉美4国，签订十几个贸易合作协议，互通有无，都是史无前例的。接着，温家宝总理又访问非洲，双方寻求“双赢”或“多赢”的办法，支持非洲摆脱贫困。这种以心服人的举动，使挑拨者黔驴技穷。

　　对欧经济牌“相当得体”

　　在与欧洲关系问题上，中国这几年大打经济牌，做得相当得体。欧洲这些年来经济不景气，也需要中国提携一把。此外，欧洲人对中国人的看法，这些年来在不断变化，我们这些住在欧洲的人特别有直接感受。自己的祖国强大了，别人就会对你肃然起敬。特别是欧洲人，普遍很欣赏和尊敬有学问有本事的人，他们对国家也是如此。对中国的五千年文化他们普遍是很尊重的，但对中国这一二百年来的穷困和落后，他们很看不起。中国经济在这么短的时间里创造奇迹，使他们佩服之至。一个德国朋友对我说：“我一直认为，中国古代有那么多发明创造，说明中国人不笨，现在证明了这一点。我怀疑，其他国家如果有同样的条件，是否也能起飞得那么快？”

　　去年，法国举办中国文化年，汉堡举办中欧峰会，欧洲与中国之间举行了数不清的学术、文化和体育交流活动。法国总统希拉克、俄罗斯总统普京、德国总理施罗德相继访华；德法首脑宣布支持解除对华武器禁运；温家宝总理访问荷兰，与欧盟委员会主席会面，等等等等，都说明中国外交上的成熟，也是经济起飞的结果。

　　经济促外交，外交促经济，对第一世界的影响特别突出。欧洲人的文化程度普遍较高，自己在民主道路上先走了一步，因而自视高人一等，对其他国家爱指手画脚。目前，经济全球化，中国的对内对外政策都和世界经济联系在一起，连中国人民银行提高利率都会影响世界股票的涨落，因而，中国的一举一动都举足轻重。

　　中国需创建“日本学”

　　中国这种自由开放经济的政策，不只是对第三世界国家，也向韩国、日本频频招手。韩国既是竞争对手，也是合作伙伴，两国之间相当友善；但日本则深不可测。相当一部分日本人对中国又怕又妒又恨，又不知所从。他们心胸狭窄，看到中国的影响力大大增强，心态极不平衡。可是，中国又是日本经济的一大支柱，一旦倒塌，对日本的后果不堪设想。日本一些右派记者宣传“中国军事威胁论”，企图制造这样一种空气———中国领导人在挑动反日情绪。实际上，他们是想借此在本国国民当中制造仇华心理，找借口加强和扩充军事力量。日前，笔者与德国的老总理施密特进行了长时间的谈话，他说：“中国对日本的友善不要操之过急，不然会得罪一批不喜欢日本的亚洲国家。日本不承认二次大战的罪行是不明智的，给自己带来了孤立。”

　　中国对待日本，不是什么韬光养晦的问题，而是如何改善两国人民关系的问题。必须从民间着手，促进民间的经济合作。

　　不久前在上海，我和在京都龙谷大学任教的老朋友卓南生教授相遇。我们都认为，中国太不了解日本，应该多出些书，多召开些座谈会、研讨会。中国的对日政策，有时过软，有时过硬，而且带有不必要的成见，必需加强这方面的工作。而日本把中国人的脾性吃透了。中国也需在各大学创设“日本学”，要全面、系统、科学、严谨、客观地研究日本的历史和文化，要学会尊敬他们，他们有很多长处值得我们中国人学习。

　　笔者认为，对待日本人民、做生意的人要友好谦和，他们对过去的侵略战争不应负责任。但日本政府的过分举动，如小泉参拜靖国神社，就是要成心做给你们看，向你们挑衅，看你们怎么办。中国也不能过多谦让，你越谦让，他就越会得寸进尺。

　　国内有一些人认为，过去的旧账就让它过去吧，不必再提了。笔者认为这是不对的。日本在历史上犯下的滔天罪行必需澄清，而且要不断地提，这是对历史的一种严肃负责的态度。笔者时常怀疑，中国是否仍有必要与日本的经济扣得那么紧？“外交促经济”也有不同的方法，有的时候，让日本经济界吃点苦头，让他们跳出来叫嚷，比你不断提抗议要强有力得多。这只是笔者在欧洲的一己之言而已。


来源：《中国青年报》 （责任编辑：王幼华）

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Copyright © 2002 www.people.com.cn. All rights reserved

LexisNexis(TM) Academic - Document

Copyright 2005 Telegraph Group Limited
THE DAILY TELEGRAPH(LONDON)

August 04, 2005, Thursday

SECTION: Features Pg. 025

LENGTH: 382 words

HEADLINE: India on the rise

BODY:
The launch in India of a personal computer for only pounds 130 is a mark of how the economy of that country has been transformed over the past generation. As Peter Foster, our South Asia Correspondent, writes in today's paper, its advent could herald an explosion in "cyber connectivity" similar to that which has already hit the mobile-phone market. India is living up to its reputation as a developing nation with a sensational information-technology sector. Is it thereby on the way to becoming a global economic giant?

Here, the comparisons with its great Asian rival are not encouraging. While India has achieved six per cent annual growth since the late 1980s, thanks to the gradual dismantling of the "licence raj" regime, China's figure has been 10 per cent since 1981. In the 1990s, foreign direct investment in China was 10 times that in India. The upshot is that fewer than five per cent of Chinese now live below the poverty line, compared with 26 per cent in India.

To build on the potential that its IT expertise promises, India still has major problems to overcome. Restrictive labour laws and an aversion to foreign investment are holding back growth in the manufacturing industry, which could draw off the land some of the 60 per cent of the population dependent on farming for a living. The infrastructure - roads, ports, airports, power supply - remains lamentable. And even the IT industry is hampered by the small proportion of people who receive higher education.

Having set India on the road to more rapid growth in the early 1990s, Manmohan Singh, the prime minister, deserves his reputation as an economic reformer. But he heads a minority government dependent on the Left to get its way in parliament. His predicament is illustrated by a Bill before the Lok Sabha that would guarantee a minimum 100 days of work a year in rural areas, a measure that smacks of the command rather than the liberalised economy. India has the basic ingredients for success - a stable democracy and a hard-working labour force eager to improve its lot. But its elderly political elite is too attached to a Fabian-tinged "Indian way" that holds back its would-be entrepreneurs. That cussedness stands between respectable economic progress and a breakthrough into China's league.

LOAD-DATE: August 4, 2005

LexisNexis(TM) Academic - Document

Copyright 2005 The Yomiuri Shimbun
The Daily Yomiuri (Tokyo)

August 4, 2005 Thursday

SECTION: Pg. 4

LENGTH: 782 words

HEADLINE: CHINA'S GROWING STRENGTH;
Chinese leaders facing dissent

SOURCE: Yomiuri

BODY:
China is making its presence felt on the global stage, and rising Chinese nationalism has caused friction between Japan and China, evidenced by its protests over prime ministerial visits to Yasukuni Shrine and oil exploration in the East China Sea.

Yomiuri Shimbun reporters visited China this summer, which marks the 60th anniversary of the end of World War II. This new series titled "China's Growing Strength" sheds light on what is going on in China and the direction in which it is heading. The first installment of the series follows.



When Yomiuri Shimbun reporters visited Beijing in mid-July, Chinese Communist Party members were not in the mood to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the end of the war with Japan.

Lin Li, senior researcher of the party's International Department Central Committee, did not hide her irritation over Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni Shrine.

"Prime Minister Koizumi said his visits to the shrine are not meant to pay respects to Class-A war criminals, but such criminals are enshrined there," she said.

A party official in Shanghai in charge of Japan policy said that the Yasukuni issue was a time bomb between the two countries.

"A Koizumi pilgrimage to the shrine on Aug. 15 would plunge the bilateral relationship to its lowest ebb," he said.

China is nervous about what will happen on Aug. 15.

Why does China make such a fuss about prime ministerial visits to the shrine?

At the end of July, a man in the southern Guangdong Province well versed in party affairs said in a whisper: "The anti-Japan demonstrations in April were the main problem. At that time, the government was driven into a corner."

On April 15, General Secretary Hu Jintao spoke at a meeting held by the party's political bureau in Zhongnanhai, Beijing, a party stronghold, mapping out measures to deal with violent anti-Japanese demonstrations that were taking place every weekend.

Immediately after the demonstrations, speculation was rife about how the party had handled the protest.

"The China-Japan relationship is so complicated that it can't be resolved by demonstrations, which are held by discontented people. They take advantage of such opportunities to stage demonstrations," Hu was quoted as saying, the first time the contents of his speech have been revealed.

Hu determined that anti-Japanese demonstrations were actions against the party and ordered a ban on demonstrations in Beijing the next day and the arrest of protest organizers.

He concluded the speech by saying that China and Japan need to maintain good relations in future generations.

Calls via the Internet at that time for a protest beginning 9 a.m. on April 16 in Tiananmen Square shocked the party, leading it to conclude the demonstrations were hostile to the party.

Since the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown on pro-democracy protesters, unauthorized gatherings in the square have been regarded as an act of defiance to the party.

The man well versed in party affairs said anti-Communist Party activists could communicate freely via the Internet, increasing their number and encouraging action.

"They are different from a conventional opposition. The party is afraid of the public," he said.

The China-Japan relationship, which can affect China's economic growth, is important, but for the party, retaining the one-party dictatorship is prized above all, he said.

"Thus, the China-Japan relationship has become secondary to the party. They will be regarded as traitors if they apologize to Japan. People will be angry at them. If Koizumi visits the shrine again, the party won't be able to keep people under control," he said.

The Chinese People's Anti-Japanese War Museum near the Marco Polo Bridge in the suburbs of Beijing marks the scene where a 1937 incident triggered the full-scale war between the two countries.

The museum was renovated to mark the 60th anniversary of end of the war with Japan.

However, displays in the museum, which reopened on July 7 to mark the anniversary of the incident, are different from those exhibited in the past.

Dioramas portraying human experiments by the Japanese 731 chemical squad were removed. Photographs of and information about Class-A war criminals are displayed with a photo of Hu and Koizumi shaking hands after a meeting in April in Jakarta placed at the end of other displays.

According to museum sources, some museum staff opposed displaying the photo, but the display was approved in line with Hu's intention.

The photo carries a connotation of urging the prime minister to refrain from visiting the shrine and prohibiting Chinese from staging demonstrations.

LOAD-DATE: August 3, 2005

asg

Encouraging China To Choose a Peaceful Path

By Adam Segal
779 words
3 August 2005
The Asian Wall Street Journal
A7
English
(c) 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. To see the edition in which this article appeared, click here http://awsj.com.hk/factiva-ns

With new trade tensions emerging almost every day in the U.S.-China relationship, the Pentagon's recent annual report on the Chinese military was widely expected to add fuel to the fire. Popular analyses played on these expectations, portraying the report as more alarmist than in the past, especially in regard to China's regional ambitions, and picking up on individual sentences in the report. For instance, much play was made of the U.S. Defense Department's warning that new capabilities that could, "provide China with a force capable of prosecuting a range of military operations in Asia -- well beyond Taiwan -- potentially posing a credible threat to modern militaries operating in the region."

Much has also been made of the behind-the-scenes fighting over the content and tone of the report between the Pentagon, the U.S. State Department, and the National Security Council and the repeated delays in releasing it. Yet a careful reading of the report suggests that the Bush administration is replacing an often piecemeal response to the rise of China with a more coherent strategy of seeking to resolve issues through a broader dialogue.

So too does U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick's current trip to China to initiate a new senior dialogue on global issues. Indeed, speaking in Hong Kong before his visit to Beijing began Monday, Mr. Zoellick described its purpose as being not only to "work cooperatively" on areas of common interest, "but also, where we have differences, how best to try to manage them." The talks are the first in a regular series of high-level contacts, with Beijing and Washington taking turns as hosts.

For its part, the Pentagon report is clear eyed about the threat of Chinese military modernization. A comprehensive and sustained modernization program includes the acquisition of new weapons systems, the development of new doctrines of warfare, and improvements in training standards. Taiwan remains a focal point of military development and Beijing is acquiring weapons (mainly from Russia) designed to coerce Taipei's choices about its political future. Weapons like the Sovremenny class destroyer and Kilo-class submarine, as well as short range missiles targeted against a U.S. aircraft carrier group, could seriously complicate a U.S. response to a conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

These military capabilities are fungible and, as the report noted, could eventually be targeted at other countries in the region. But such conclusions are nothing new -- others have long pointed out Beijing is developing the ability to project its power well beyond Taiwan. This is not particularly surprising or unexpected. For instance, a 2003 Council on Foreign Relations task force predicted that China would become the predominant military power in East Asia within the next two decades.

What is far more notable about the Pentagon report is its evenhanded tone. On the capabilities side, its balances development trends with short-term limitations on Beijing's use of military assets. Continued problems in coordinating joint operations, a lack of critical command and control and surveillance capabilities, and dependence on foreign suppliers for key weapons technologies all reduce China's ability to project power beyond its periphery. Unlike in previous years, the report makes limited use of less reliable sources -- such as Hong Kong newspapers or the writings of one or two colonels -- to infer the civilian leadership's long-term strategic intentions. There is no speculation that Beijing views the U.S. as its primary competitor.

Echoing comments that U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice made in Beijing last month, the Pentagon notes that the U.S. "welcomes the rise of a peaceful and prosperous China, one that becomes integrated as a constructive member of the international community." Mr. Zoellick's trip is a part of an increasingly administration-wide effort to put this goal into practice.

In effect the Pentagon report and Mr. Zoellick's trip suggest that the U.S. will try and influence China rather than simply defend against it. As the report clearly states, the future -- and Chinese intentions -- are uncertain. Beijing may choose to be a more constructive member of the international community or it may decide on a more assertive and nationalistic foreign policy. An economic downturn in China or social disruption could produce outcomes no one expects. But for now and in the face of uncertainty, the priority is to try to create an environment in which China has an interest in cooperating with the U.S.

---

Mr. Segal is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

Document AWSJ000020050802e1830000g

LexisNexis(TM) Academic - Document

LexisNexis(TM) Academic - DocumentCopyright 2005 The Financial Times Limited
Financial Times (London, England)

July 29, 2005 Friday
Asia Edition 1

SECTION: THE AMERICAS; Pg. 5

LENGTH: 449 words

HEADLINE: China steps up efforts to calm criticism in US

BYLINE: By GUY DINMORE and SCOTT HEISER

BODY:


China has embarked on a campaign to counter criticism in the US of its growing economic and military power, using the visit of a senior official to Washington to make the case in public for a strategic relationship and employing a US lobbying firm to communicate with Congress.

Addressing a meeting of the US-China Business Council on Wednesday, Tang Jiaxuan, state councillor and former foreign minister, said: "Let us take a long view from a strategic plane when looking at and handling China-US relations."

China would "gradually" address US concerns over the trade deficit and intellectual property rights, and allow it greater access to services, he said.

"All this will mean boundless opportunities for US businesses," he added.

During his visit Mr Tang, a figure in Chinese efforts to curb North Korea's nuclear ambitions, also met Condoleezza Rice, US secretary of state.

Talks focused on trade issues, preparations for a summit in September between presidents George W. Bush and Hu Jintao, and the crisis over North Korea.

Robert Zoellick, deputy secretary of state, will travel to Beijing to inaugurate what China is calling a "strategic dialogue".

The US prefers the term "senior dialogue" in deference to the more elevated "strategic" tag it reserves in Asia for Japan and Australia.

In his address to the business council, Mr Tang reiterated Chinese demands that the US give China full market economy status, lift restrictions on commodity and technology exports "and correct the wrong practices of trade protectionism".

While he made a strong case for how the US and China must develop a strategic relationship in the face of common global threats, US lawmakers were passing a measure that would allow US companies to seek tariffs on unfairly subsidised Chinese imports. The bill had been temporarily blocked by Democrats on Tuesday.

Seeking to build influence in Washington, the Chinese embassy has retained Patton Boggs to lobby Congress.

The recruitment of the firm - which has previously represented such countries as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Pakistan - highlights China's efforts to respond to the wave of anti-Chinese sentiment in Congress.

Beyond trade, the ill-feeling is driven by Chinese threats to Taiwan and its military expansion.

Brian Hale, a spokesman for Patton Boggs, confirmed that the firm would provide counsel to the Chinese embassy on "congressional matters".

The contract, dated July 11, calls for the embassy to pay a Dollars 22,000 (Euros 18,300, Pounds 12,650) monthly retainer.

Robert Kapp, former president of the US-China Business Council, which hosted Mr Tang, said: "The Chinese are learning to walk the walk and talk the talk, and I don't have a problem with it."

LOAD-DATE: July 28, 2005

LexisNexis(TM) Academic - Document

LexisNexis(TM) Academic - Document
Copyright 2005 The Financial Times Limited
Financial Times (London, England)

August 3, 2005 Wednesday
Asia Edition 1

SECTION: ASIA-PACIFIC; Pg. 2

LENGTH: 452 words

HEADLINE: Tokyo voices concern over China's development of deep-water fleet

BYLINE: By DAVID PILLING

DATELINE: TOKYO

BODY:


Japan yesterday fleshed out its concerns about China's growing military power, emphasising in its annual defence white paper what it said were Beijing's increasingly bold maritime ambitions.

The defence paper, which echoes concerns expressed about China's military build-up in a US Defense Department report last month, said Japan's public was "exceedingly concerned" about the intrusion of Chinese vessels, including a nuclear submarine, into Japanese waters. "Regarding the pick-up in China's maritime activity, the trends need to be watched," it said. "It has been pointed out that the Chinese navy is aiming to become a so-called 'blue-water navy'," it added, referring to development of a deep-water fleet.

Yoshinori Ohno, defence minister, said Japan did not see China as a threat. "But there are issues that require attention. We (also) urge China to improve its transparency," he added, reflecting a widespread belief in Tokyo that Beijing is spending more on its military build-up than it admits.

Japan's willingness to name China in a defence paper highlights increased tension between the countries over issues from interpretation of wartime history to ownership of disputed gas resources. In April anti-Japanese demonstrations in China brought Sino-Japanese relations to a new low. Yesterday conservative legislators and citizens risked increasing those tensions by urging Junichiro Koizumi, the prime minister, to visit the Yasukuni shrine on August 15. Yasukuni is reviled by China because it enshrines as "gods" 14 convicted war criminals alongside more than 2m fallen Japanese soldiers.

Beijing has made clear it does not want Mr Koizumi to visit Yasukuni, especially on August 15, the 60th anniversary of Japan's surrender. The present and former emperor have stopped visiting Yasukuni since the convicted war criminals, including wartime prime minister Hideki Tojo, were enshrined in 1978.

Takeo Hiranuma, former trade minister, who heads one of the concerned groups, said: "The argument by some people that this will lead to militarism is wrong. Since Mr Koizumi made a promise, I want him to pay homage on August 15 in a dignified manner."

Yasuhiro Tase, of the Nikkei newspaper, said the prime minister's advisers told him not to visit Yasukuni. "But you can never tell what Koizumi will do."

More than half of Japan's public opposes Mr Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni, according to opinion polls, although there is a strong body of opinion that argues Japan needs to stand up to perceived Chinese bullying. What is seen as Beijing's diplomatic bullying was brought up in the white paper, which referred to China's anti-secession law. Tokyo fears Beijing's stance could make Taiwan a dangerous flashpoint.

LOAD-DATE: August 2, 2005